Analyses
International Affairs
In the Polish Presidential Elections, Ukraine Will Tilt the Balance
Fabio Turco 17 March 2025
On May 18, Polish voters will head to the polls for the first round of the presidential elections. A ballot, which is highly likely, is scheduled for June 1. After a year and a half in power, the center-liberal-progressive coalition—comprising the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and Lewica parties, and led by Donald Tusk—faces a true validation test. Depending on the outcome, this election could have significant repercussions for the legislature.
  • With the PKK’s Demise, Erdogan Courts the Kurdish Vote
    Mariano Giustino 12 March 2025
    The fact that one of the longest conflicts in contemporary history, which has resulted in over 40,000 deaths, could soon come to an end is undoubtedly an event worth celebrating. Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan has ordered the armed wing of the party he founded in 1978 to end the armed struggle and dissolve the organization. Is this the end of an era? It’s still too early to say.
  • Is “International Law” Dead?
    Gaetano Pentassuglia 6 March 2025
    However exceptionally dramatic and complex current (new and old) conflicts like Ukraine and Palestine are, it is hard to believe that the vast and long-established network of legal relationships between states, and between the latter and non-state actors alike—the almost unlimited number of areas governed by over 250,000 international treaties, customary rules, and over 2,000 sectoral global regimes—will fall to pieces as a result of contingent geopolitical considerations (even though, admittedly, the new geopolitical context may stay with us for some time to come).
  • Trump’s Old-World Vision Clashes with China’s 21st-Century Rise (p. II)
    Seán Golden 3 March 2025
    It is extremely difficult to accurately predict what will unfold in Trump’s relations with China or their effects on the rest of the world, but it may be possible to identify and analyze some of the major scenarios in which they will unfold, including the emerging post-Bretton Woods world order, world trade, the role of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) in a global setting, and security issues.
  • What’s Behind the Arab Alternative to Trump’s Gaza Proposal
    Hussein Ibish 24 February 2025
    Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting on February 21 with all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries plus the crucial additions of Egypt and Jordan to begin crafting a formal Arab response to President Donald J. Trump’s fantastical scheme to redevelop Gaza after removing its 2.2 million Palestinian residents. Trump’s supporters and officials claim that this sudden Arab urgency to respond with an alternative to his Gaza plan is a diplomatic achievement and the real purpose of his radical proposal. Yet whatever the Arab countries come up with at this GCC +2 meeting, or at the March 4 full convening of the Arab League, will not be practicable given Israel’s policies.
  • Boussois: “The Saudis Against Trump, But Normalization with Israel is Inevitable”
    Federica Zoja 15 February 2025
    “Every day there’s something new. Donald Trump’s political agenda is totally unpredictable: today it’s the Gaza Strip, tomorrow it will be Ukraine!” Sebastien Boussois, an analyst and researcher at the Université Libre de Bruxelles and at Uqam in Montreal, is one of the most authoritative voices in the French-speaking world on the subject of relations between the West and the Gulf States. In the aftermath of Riyadh’s vehement opposition to the American proposal to empty Gaza and rebuild it, his first comment is unequivocal: “It’s all a show, a complete charade! I think that Saudi Arabia, through the voice of its Foreign Minister, is obliged to reject Trump’s proposal for annexation. But also that there is no lasting or solid agreement in the region as strong as the one between the United States and Saudi Arabia: let us remember, it dates back to 1945, after the end of the Second World War.”
  • Rogozinski on Gaza: “Who Will Forgive us, If We Can’t Ask for Forgiveness for These Crimes?”
    Jacob Rogozinski 10 February 2025
    By acting this way, the Israeli right and far right have taken all Jews hostage—both in Israel and the diaspora—making us complicit in their crimes. And they have done so in the name of the Jewish people, which means in my name as well. For the first time in my life, I feel ashamed to be Jewish. But this is not the shame of the past—the shame of those who were insulted, humiliated, and confined to ghettos. It is a new kind of shame, rare in our people’s long history—the shame of being complicit in a massacre.
  • Trump’s Old-World Vision Clashes with China’s 21st-Century Rise
    Seán Golden 7 February 2025
    Trump promised to impose 60 percent tariffs on Chinese trade immediately but has for the moment only imposed 10 percent. Whether this is an attempt to keep face with his voters or a tactical move in a longer-term strategy remains to be seen, as does China’s response and the global consequences. The initial Chinese response has been a cautious tit-for-tat, but the situation is fluid.
  • Israel’s “Forgotten” Hostages: Omri Miran’s Sister Says,
    “We, the Relatives, Are Now a Family.”
    Simone Disegni 5 February 2025
    Among the Israeli hostages in Gaza, some are still lost, while others are being released. With the ceasefire agreement now in effect, Hamas has begun releasing hostages who were kidnapped over 15 months ago. The first to be freed are women, the elderly, and children, as outlined in the agreement. However, a devastating blow to the families and all of Israel came in the last few hours: not all of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the agreement – which lasts 42 days – are still alive. Some, likely 8, have died, and only their bodies will be returned. Hamas officially informed Israel, confirming intelligence reports. Meanwhile, there is still uncertainty about the fate of the other hostages not included in this first group. It’s estimated that 63 more hostages remain, most of them men.
Load more