President Mubarak’s party triumphed, some protested about ballot-rigging and almost no one bothered to vote… were these elections the usual farce?

It is known that in Egypt elections do not count for much. Those for electing the Shura Council in particular are of very little importance. Almost none of the political parties paid much attention.

What did seem interesting was that a number of seats were won by secular opposition parties and the Muslim Brotherhood was totally defeated…

Small opposition parties act in concert with the party in power (NDP), especially the communist Tagammu party. Its secretary was appointed to the Shura Council directly by President Mubarak. The Ghad Party, which also won a seat, is very close to the NDP.

Is that the same Ghad to which the 2005 presidential candidate Ayman Nour belonged?

No, this is a “dissident” wing of Nour’s old party, led by Musa Mustafa, someone who is very close to the regime. As far as the Muslim Brotherhood is concerned, they never considered the Shura Council a priority and their real battle will be played out at the elections for the People’s Assembly (majlis al shaab) in October.

In all events the regime has cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood…

There is no doubt about that. Relations between the regime and the Brotherhood have always blown hot and cold. The fact that the Brotherhood remains illegal, gives the government full discretion in giving it space and then forbidding it. At the moment the government is reducing their margin of action, especially in view of the 2011 presidential elections.

Is the extension of the state of emergency approved by parliament last May part of this picture?

I never believed it would be abrogated. The government is frightened by the rising discontent among the people and the state of emergency guarantees the regime’s stability and security, especially at such a delicate phase such as a new presidency, whether it is Mubarak or someone else.

So Mubarak’s candidature is not up for discussion…

According to his own statements, Mubarak is determined to stay in power until he dies. He said this a year ago. I see nothing new that indicates that this is not true. In any case, if for some reason he should not run, his party will certainly appoint another candidate chosen among his cadres, and the choice would almost certainly fall on his son Gamal.

As far as opponents to Mubarak are concerned, could Ayman Nour run again?

That is highly unlikely. After three years in prison, accused of illegally forming the Ghad Party, Nour has to deal with many legal problems. At the moment he cannot compete for any political position, let alone that of President of the Republic. Nobel Prize Winner El Baradei is also facing legal obstacles. He could only run for the presidency as an independent candidate.

Why not as the leader of a new political party?

It is almost impossible to form a new political party. To be approved the party must obtain authorisation from the “Committee for Political Parties,” a body presided over by the NDP’s secretary general.

Bureaucratic obstacles aside, what do you think of the El Baradei phenomenon?

I believe he has managed to win consensus of the new generations, especially the young who are interested in politics but not remotely linked to political parties. For them El Baradei is the symbol of complete novelty.

Does this take supporters away from the Muslim Brotherhood?

The real novelty in Egypt is that discontent among the people is rising. In the past this discontent was acknowledged almost exclusively by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic movements. Now the new generations are attracted by new secular protest movements and El Baradei is becoming one of their symbols. This really does prove that the Islamic Brotherhood is losing its political appeal.

To end on the subject of international politics, what role did Egypt play in the crisis that arose from the Israeli blitz on the Freedom Flotilla?

I think Egypt found itself in a very embarrassing situation. Our country has always played the part of the defender of the Palestinian cause. Now it risks losing this role to Turkey. Hence the decision to open the Rafah border crossing to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. The problem is that the opening of the border crossing should also be managed by the Palestinians under the control of the PNA. Obama should place this issue at the top of the agenda in the indirect peace talks.

Translated by Francesca Simmons