“Regain control, ensure security.” This is the slogan of a draft law promoted by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and adopted by his government to outline the country’s migration strategy from 2025 to 2030. The proposal has sparked intense debate due to its strict measures, particularly the option to suspend the right to asylum when deemed necessary. Tusk aims to nearly eliminate “illegal” immigration by pursuing a radical approach, enacting measures that conflict with the Geneva Convention, the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, and even Poland’s own Constitution.
For now, he has secured the approval of his cabinet, despite causing internal divisions within the coalition’s left wing, and it seems he hasn’t faced significant resistance at the European Council where he presented the proposal.
But why address immigration now?
One reason is practical. For the past three years, Poland has been dealing with a persistent crisis at its border with Belarus. With Moscow’s backing, Minsk has created an artificial migration route, facilitating the movement of people—primarily from Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan—to exert pressure on the EU’s external borders. The crisis peaked in November 2021, when thousands of refugees gathered at the border. At the time, the conservative Law and Justice government responded forcefully by deploying troops, building fences, and erecting a temporary barrier, which soon became a permanent wall. Although the number of crossing attempts has not returned to earlier levels, they have continued. In late May, a soldier was fatally stabbed through the separation wall. Meanwhile, it remains difficult to count the number of migrants who have lost their lives in the forest along the border between the two countries.
Yet there is another factor likely even more significant for Tusk right now: the political one. The announcement of this migration strategy came exactly one year after October 15, 2023, the date when the center-liberal-progressive coalition led by Tusk defeated the conservative, nationalist Law and Justice party, which had held power for eight years. This one-year mark is a natural time for reflection, particularly for a government that was initially celebrated as the beginning of a new political era. It’s worth noting that Tusk’s time in office has been even shorter—the new administration was only sworn in on December 13 due to delays caused by Law and Justice’s obstruction. Still, the moment has come to assess what has and hasn’t been achieved so far.
A mixed record
The stated goal was to free Poland from a government that had taken a semi-authoritarian turn and, for years, had become something of a pariah in European politics, much like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. The prolonged standoff with Brussels over rule-of-law issues had resulted in the freezing of the Recovery Fund and cohesion funds—a total of 137 billion euros that was crucial to unlock.
Another promise from Tusk’s government was to reform the public media, which had abandoned its informative role to serve as a propaganda tool for Law and Justice. This was one of the first actions taken by the new government; then-Culture Minister Sienkiewicz dismissed the leaders of state television TVP, the PAP news agency, and the radio broadcaster Polskie Radio. This assertive move triggered significant protests from the opposition and raised concerns about whether it was conducted within the bounds of the law.
On this front, the mission has been a success, though largely due to the European Commission’s goodwill rather than any decisive government action. Brussels responded positively to Justice Minister Adam Bodnar’s efforts in presenting a plan aimed at restoring the separation of powers between the executive and judiciary. However, there is still a long way to go, with several key steps remaining—among them, the separation of the roles of Justice Minister and Attorney General.
Another promise from Tusk’s government was to reform the public media, which had abandoned its informative role to serve as a propaganda tool for Law and Justice. This was one of the first actions taken by the new government; then-Culture Minister Sienkiewicz dismissed the leaders of state television TVP, the PAP news agency, and the radio broadcaster Polskie Radio. This assertive move triggered significant protests from the opposition and raised concerns about whether it was conducted within the bounds of the law.
A completely different approach has been taken regarding what was supposed to be the cornerstone of reforms: the amendment to the abortion law. This change was urged by voters who wanted to hold Law and Justice accountable for effectively making it impossible for women to access abortion services after a ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal. In Poland today, abortion is allowed only when the mother’s life is at risk or if conception results from rape or incest.
Donald Tusk had promised to change the situation within the first hundred days of his term, but he has encountered the reality of a coalition with differing views on the issue. The left-wing parties, including Lewica and much of the Civic Coalition, support liberalizing abortion laws, while the centrist Third Way prefers to leave the matter to a referendum. It was Third Way—specifically the Polish People’s Party (PSL) faction—that blocked a bill aimed at decriminalizing assistance for women seeking abortions. This defeat in Parliament led Tusk to acknowledge that resolving the issue during this legislative term would be impossible. For many female voters, this statement feels like a broken promise, and it has been a bitter pill for the left wing of the coalition to swallow.
Overall, the assessment of the first year of government is mixed, prompting Tusk to revitalize his initiatives. He aims to gain support from the more conservative segment of the electorate by focusing on issues that have historically resonated with conservatives: security and immigration.
Looking Towards Presidential Elections
The results of the recent local and European elections, along with the latest polls, indicate a strengthening of the Civic Coalition, which has regained its status as the leading party in Poland after ten years, now enjoying support exceeding 32 percent. However, this comes alongside a gradual weakening of its allies, both of which are significantly below the psychological threshold of 10 percent. While undermining the left and eroding votes from the center may be a short-term strategy that yields some benefits, it could be counterproductive in the long run—especially if Law and Justice aligns with the far-right Confederation in the opposition.
In the spring of next year, Poles will return to the polls to elect a new president. This election is crucial for the government’s future, which has so far been partially hindered by Duda’s opposition. The two main parties have not yet announced their candidates. The Civic Coalition is set to reveal its candidate on December 7, with Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski as the frontrunner, having narrowly lost in 2020 by just a few thousand votes. Meanwhile, Law and Justice is considering the possibility of holding primaries. Regardless, it is unlikely that the election can be decided in a single round, meaning Tusk’s party will need to rely on support from its allies’ voters. Currently, that support is not guaranteed.
Cover photo: Participants of the protest against the suspension of asylum law under the slogan “Let’s defend the boundary of humanity” walk through the streets of the city in Krakow, Poland, on October 27, 2024. (Photo by Klaudia Radecka / NurPhoto via AFP)
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