Analyses
Lebanon Once Again Trapped in the War of Others
Vanessa Breidy 28 September 2024

Lebanon considers Israel “an enemy” by law and has enforced an anti-Israel boycott law since 1955. Most Lebanese people sympathize with the Palestinian cause, viewing Israel as an occupying force. Many echo the sentiments of Egyptian satirist Bassem Youssef, who, in a viral interview with Piers Morgan, compared Israel to a “narcissistic psychopath” that continues to depict itself as a victim, even after killing over 41,000 Palestinians and leaving Gaza in ruins. However, this does not imply that the majority of Lebanese supported Hezbollah’s decision to open a war front from the south of Lebanon in solidarity with Gaza.

Three main reasons underpin this opposition: first, Hezbollah should not make unilateral war decisions without government approval. Second, its close ties to Iran drag Lebanon into a proxy conflict with the West. Third, Hezbollah lacks the military capacity to meaningfully alter Gaza’s situation. Despite months of war, Gaza remains devastated, and Hezbollah’s involvement has done little to change that. As a result, this war further erodes Lebanon’s sovereignty, brings catastrophe, and offers no tangible benefit to the Gazan people. Yet, Hezbollah has pushed forward, disregarding public opinion and silencing dissent by accusing critics of being complicit with Israel or traitors.

Until September 17, the situation was still under control in the land of the cedars. That changed when around 3,000 Hezbollah-linked pagers exploded simultaneously around 3:30 PM. Twenty-four hours later, another round of explosions hit hundreds of walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members. On September 20, commanders from Hezbollah’s Radwan force, a special operations unit, were assassinated in the suburbs of Beirut. By September 23, the conflict had peaked with heavy bombardment in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, killing over 500 people, many of whom were civilians, women, and children. Attacks on Hezbollah leaders have continued daily, and bombings have reached Byblos, Keserwan and the suburb of Beirut. In response, Hezbollah has launched rockets at Haifa and targeted Tel Aviv, a first since the war began.

This escalation followed an announcement by Israel’s security cabinet to add the return of displaced citizens to northern Israel to its war objectives. Having achieved its major military goals in Gaza and the West Bank, Israel is now determined to intensify the conflict along its northern border, aiming to bring its people back “whatever it takes,” as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated. Since the war with Hezbollah began, about 70,000 Israeli settlers near the Lebanese border have fled. Hezbollah has made it clear they will continue fighting until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, a demand that Israel rejects. But is Hezbollah truly prepared for this escalation, and what are their options? What role is the Lebanese opposition playing in these developments?

Since the conflict’s start, Israel’s superiority in intelligence and technology has been evident. Israel has successfully assassinated many Hezbollah figures outside the battlefield, using drones and missiles to target specific individuals in their cars and homes. The most notable killing before the recent escalation was that of senior leader Fouad Shukur on July 30, just hours before Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran. This heightened tensions in the region for about a month until Hezbollah retaliated on August 25 with drone strikes and 320 Katyusha rockets. However, no Israelis were killed, as Israel had launched a preemptive strike just minutes before, with around 100 missiles targeting southern Lebanon. Three people were killed in Lebanon, but both sides seemed satisfied with the outcome. Iran, on the other hand, has yet to respond to Haniyeh’s assassination, which took place in its capital under its protection.

Now, Hezbollah faces severe setbacks. The explosion of their communication devices alone has left 1,500 members blind or maimed. Hundreds of thousands have fled their homes in the South, Beqaa and the suburb of Beirut. Many of Hezbollah’s leaders, particularly from the Radwan force, have been killed, while it is still unknown whether Hassan Nasrallah was killed. These losses are significant, both on the battlefield and in terms of morale. Hezbollah now has limited options: it can either escalate the war to maintain its status and popularity, risking destruction like Hamas, or find a role in any potential deal Iran negotiates with the United States, which may allow Hezbollah to preserve its arms and influence in Lebanon.

The Lebanese opposition, meanwhile, is taking on two key roles. First, they are condemning Israel’s actions, expressing sympathy for the Lebanese people who have been killed, injured, or displaced. Opposition MP Mark Daou, for example, has repeatedly condemned Israel’s war crimes and indiscriminate strikes on civilians.

The second role of the opposition is to draw attention to Iran’s broader agenda in the war, particularly its pursuit of a nuclear deal with the U.S., and to highlight its lack of support for Hezbollah on the battlefield. Mark Daou criticized Khamenei’s claim that Hezbollah is “triumphant,” responding on X: “Leave us alone and go fight with your own people, not ours.” He also reacted to Iran’s Foreign Minister, who expressed readiness for nuclear negotiations in New York, by stating: “They are negotiating with our dead bodies.”

Dima Sadek, a media figure and Shi’i activist, posted an image on X showing Lebanon caught between the conflict of Israel and Iran.

But is this opposition effort enough? Perhaps not. The Lebanese state remains weak, and its ability to take action is limited. Today, the government is mostly focused on managing health and displacement crises. While they are trying to negotiate for a truce in New York, Hezbollah remains the real decision-maker. Even if a truce is reached, can it safeguard the Lebanese state and its system? The last time foreign wars infiltrated Lebanon so deeply, it led to an internal conflict. While the Lebanese people seem unwilling to relive that tragedy, will their leaders be able to find a solution before time runs out?

 

 

 

Cover photo: Lebanese army soldiers gather over the rubble of a levelled buildings as people flight the flames, following Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighbourhood of Beirut’s southern suburbs on September 27, 2024. – A source close to Hezbollah said the massive Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs flattened six buildings. (Photo by Ibrahim Amro / AFP)

SUPPORT OUR WORK

 

Please consider giving a tax-free donation to Reset this year

Any amount will help show your support for our activities

In Europe and elsewhere
(Reset DOC)


In the US
(Reset Dialogues)


x