Donald Trump’s unmitigated triumph in the 2024 presidential election has left American Democrats in a state of profound shock, possibly surpassing their dismay from his earlier 2016 win.
Eight years ago, tactical missteps abounded: Hillary Clinton’s decision to skip Wisconsin despite requests from the local Democratic Party, the infamous “basket of deplorables” comment about Trump’s supporters, a lukewarm response from the Democratic left led by Bernie Sanders, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein siphoning off crucial votes. Despite these setbacks, the Democratic ticket still secured the popular vote. This time, however, no such factors came into play. Trump’s victory exceeded 50 percent in five of the seven key swing states – Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. In Wisconsin and Michigan, he narrowly missed the mark with approximately 49.8 percent, still an insurmountable lead. Notably, Trump became the first Republican candidate to win even on a purely numerical level, meaning that if Democrats had succeeded in abolishing the Electoral College, he still would have emerged victorious.
What exactly were the reasons behind Trump’s comfortable victory in this election?
First, message consistency. The former president remained steadfast even in November 2022, when his star seemed to be fading. Launching his campaign far ahead of schedule, he rallied a small group of loyalists – without any elected official present, not even Representative Matt Gaetz, a staunch defender of Trumpism from his own state – at his Mar-a-Lago residence, pushing a simple but impactful message: America was veering toward chaos fueled by inflation, uncontrolled immigration, and urban crime. His proposed solution? A return to the White House because “only he could fix it.”
Most of his arguments, though, were rooted in misinformation. While inflation was indeed high, it was driven not by Joe Biden’s policies but rather due to the rebound in economic growth, driven by massive public spending programs aimed precisely at restoring the purchasing power of a country still recovering from the wounds of a devastating pandemic. Immigration, though sustained, had no extraordinary humanitarian crises, except those provoked by Republican policies, such as Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s move to relocate migrants to unprepared northern cities like Boston, Chicago and New York. Crime was under control, except in a few historically troubled areas like Portland and Detroit.
To an anxious, often disengaged electorate, these complexities mattered little. Voters were drawn to promises like cheaper gas prices reminiscent of 2019. Meanwhile, the Democratic administration promoted a narrative centered on the successes of Bidenomics in terms of fundamentals: extremely low unemployment, sustained wage growth, and the general stability of purchasing power, even as the Federal Reserve implemented monetary tightening policies specifically to curb inflation. Yet, such achievements felt hollow amid rising grocery costs and the growing unaffordability of dining out for the middle class. All of this turned “Bidenomics” into a term of mockery used mainly by Republicans, who blamed energy transition policies for causing these high prices – a falsehood that nevertheless gained viral traction.
Another factor was Trump’s return to the social media sphere. Following the Capitol Hill attack, he had been turned into a digital pariah, prompting the rise of right-leaning platforms like Gab, Parler, Gettr, and even Truth Social, the tycoon’s own social network through which he initially shared his messages. Then came Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter. The controversial Tesla magnate, once a close ally of Democrat Barack Obama, gradually became a new reference point for a radical right that rejected traditional mainstream media narratives. While Twitter had previously been mostly neutral, under Musk, the new X transformed into a formidable propaganda tool for Trumpism. Despite initially backing Trump’s Republican rival, Ron DeSantis – the Florida governor who seemed too extreme on issues like the fight against “woke” ideology and an excessive focus on cultural debates that held little interest for an electorate more concerned with their wallets – Musk ultimately found common ground with Trump. With this stance and a small circle of loyalists, Trump was able to defeat both DeSantis and Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador and advocate of a more traditional conservatism that had fallen out of favor with voters.
Trump’s campaign relied on a small, tight-knit team, including key figures from his first term, including Stephen Miller, a legal consultant and immigration policy expert from Trump’s first term, who shaped much of the nationalist and ethnic-tinged “MAGA” ideology. Other key figures in Trump’s comeback included campaign manager Chris LaCivita, communications chief Jason Miller, and spokesperson Stephen Cheung. This team amplified nostalgia for a pre-pandemic America under Trump and stoked grievances about the “stolen” 2020 election, a narrative debunked but resilient among his base.
Paradoxically, what proved successful was a platform that was extreme on issues like immigration – with promises of “mass deportations” of at least “twenty million undocumented immigrants” – but moderate on topics such as reproductive rights. Trump took a centrist stance on abortion, leaving decisions up to individual states rather than enforcing a federal ban. Economically, he at least nominally opened up to listening to unions – a surprising shift for Republicans traditionally hostile to organized labor.
Regarding minority communities, Trump and his team recognized that many were growing weary of Democratic leaders’ perceived paternalism, which often framed them as “victims.”. Instead, some of these voters were eager to take charge of their own destinies without “compensation” for injustices from decades past. With ballots still being counted in areas with a large Latino population, like Nevada and Arizona, definitive conclusions are elusive. However, it is reasonable to assert that George W. Bush’s insight into the social conservatism prevalent among the Latino community was spot on. One of the most striking shifts occurred in Texas: Republican Senator Ted Cruz, a former Trump rival turned ardent supporter, had trailed by 29 points among Latino voters in 2018. Six years later, he won by six points – a staggering 35-point swing.
Looming over the election was also the unpopularity of President Joe Biden. Despite a series of notable legislative achievements in 2021-22, his perceived disconnection and frailty overshadowed his legislative achievements, further undermining Democratic momentum. The last-minute replacement of Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris likely did little to alter an already dire situation for the Democrats. The “joy” and “positivity” conveyed by the Democratic campaign over the past four months was perceived by many as an insult from a privileged elite.
Additionally, the Israel-Gaza conflict has significantly eroded Democratic support—not necessarily by shifting votes directly to the Republicans (though some did defect, such as the mayor of the Michigan town of Hamtramck), but by driving a decisive wave of abstentions.
In assuming that a controversial figure like Liz Cheney—the daughter of one of the architects of the 2003 Iraq invasion—could aid the Democratic cause, they lost a crucial part of Biden’s 2020 coalition. This broad alliance was perhaps only held together by the experience of the outgoing president. If Democrats aim to counter this new Republican party in the future, they will need to find a way to reassemble that coalition.
Cover photo: Donald Trump gestures at supporters after speaking as he holds hands with former US First Lady Melania Trump during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, early on November 6, 2024. (Photo by Jim Watson / AFP)
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