Many analysts agree that the current financial crisis will have negative consequences on a global scale, and that nothing will ever be the same again. Consequently, going over the history of the disaster and singling out the American subprime mortgage crisis as the root cause matters little, although there is no denying the domino effect on financial markets and economies throughout the world, a logical result of globalising markets without regulation. However, one thing we can bank on is that the damage will not only be economic, but also social and political, and herein lies our interest in understanding how the Arab world is reacting to the crisis. Are economic and political strategies able to mitigate the crisis, or, if not, is there a risk that Arab leaders will use the financial crisis as a reason to justify recent and future failures? From initial observations and statements it seems that this is a worrying state of affairs and that the risks are certainly serious and very real. Let’s look at a couple of issues:

One. The slump in oil prices has hit many Arab countries and the members of OPEC. Unfortunately, experience has taught us that Arab oil has never met the population’s expectations for development and welfare, and I still remember my Algerian schoolmate Rachid’s cries of rage and frustration: “Why am I poor when my country is rich?” Income from oil has created a system of nepotism founded on corruption, in Algeria as well as in Gulf countries. The regime’s primary goal is always the same, to hold onto power at all costs. The biggest danger, however, emerges when financial resources run dry and the days of a free lunch are over. Internal struggles become a disaster waiting to happen, which threatens both political and economic stability, because no-one is willing to renounce their privileges. The money-hungry class system continues.

Two. The current worldwide economic crisis could be used as a pretext for removing democracy from the agenda in the Arab world. How many times have we heard our leaders say that democracy is an impermissible luxury, or that we are still not ready for democracy, that there are other causes to fight first such as illiteracy, poverty and so on? What has been done to date? To be honest very little, and the Arab world is far behind in political reform. We have even witnessed some aspects become stronger, such as the emergence of hereditary Republics where a President leaves their son in power as if it was a monarchy. The most incredible example is Syria, and unfortunately this will not be the only one because Colonel Gaddafi, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarek and Yemeni leader Ali Abdullah Saleh, are all big fans of the ‘Syrian model’.

Democracy should be an absolute priority, because it is an indispensable way of ensuring the smooth operation of institutions. The division of authority is a sure way to avoid the establishment of totalitarian regimes, and opposition parties can keep an eye on the governing power. And as the Fourth Estate, the press must be independent from the state to allow for debate and fundamental rights such as freedom of expression. With the financial crisis underway, questions have already been raised regarding the geopolitical hierarchy, and today the Arab world is facing a challenge. The ‘New World Order’, established after the collapse of the Soviet Union and unilaterally led by the United States, is also in deep crisis, especially with new players such as India and China arriving on the international scene. The ruling Arab class cannot continue making excuses because sooner or later the people will rise up, and by then it will already be over.

Amara Lakhous is an Italian-Algerian writer and anthropologist. He is the author of “Clash of Civilizations over an Elevator in Piazza Vittorio” (Europa Editions 2008) and has lived in Rome since 1995.

Translation by Helen Waghorn