What makes Tunisia such a good candidate for democracy today? And what are its most significant challenges?

Socially, it is a small, highly-educated, and homogenous country of only 10 million people, with entrenched women’s rights for the past 60 years. Tunisia has a very moderate interpretation of Islam and a moderately secular government. Economically, Tunisia has a strong and diverse economy, with developed infrastructure and low poverty and illiteracy rates. Because of all these reasons, many people have great hopes that Tunisia can succeed, more quickly and easily than its neighbors, in its current transition to democracy.

There are four main challenges: counter-revolutionary activities by elements of the old regime, the sudden rise in Salafism, balancing freedom of expression against cultural and religious values, and economic development. Tunisia is doing well addressing the first three issues, but democracy’s ultimate success depends on its ability to deliver improvements in people’s lives. The economy has suffered a big hit since the revolution, especially the tourism sector, which employs 400,000 people. Last year, total economic losses related to the revolution amounted to at least 10 billion dollars, and this year is not expected to be much better.

Do you worry that outside help, instead of having the effect it had on Germany early after WWII, can have the effect that it had on Egypt, which was creating a dependence of aid that is becoming an obstacle to a real development process?

First of all, Tunisia needs economic assistance right now because Tunisia has lost so much money in the last year since the revolution. The revolution is almost like an earthquake, it introduces a lot of turbulence in the economic process. As a result there are some estimates, not confirmed yet, that unemployment has almost doubled in the last year: it was close to 15% or so, now it’s close to 30%.

Tourism of course employs 400,000 people. These families live off of tourism. When there is no tourism, these people can go hungry. They are not rich; they live from month to month or season to season. I fear if there is a prolonged period of economic stagnation, it could actually derail the transition because people could lose patience, especially the youth, who will say, “I am not willing to wait. I want a job now.” If this happens, we could see a lot of violence, a lot of chaos. And there are anti-democratic forces who want to see this transition fail.

Tunisia needs economic assistance right now to avoid this economic crisis. Ultimately after 2 years or 3 years, the Tunisian economy will rebound and will not need any assistance. The economic pillars and indicators are good. But during this turbulence, I worry that if there is a prolonged period of economic stagnation in Tunisia, it could actually derail the democratic transition. This is the real threat I see for Tunisian democracy, so I absolutely think a new Marshall Plan is required.

Do you really think an intervention of such dimensions is possible? Does Tunisia have the capacity to absorb such large economic assistance?

This aid, in the amount of roughly 4 or 5 billion USD per year, sounds like a lot of money. But given that it comes from the whole international community, I don’t think it’s unreasonable. If support is given from the United States, from Europe, from Turkey, Japan, China, each country could give perhaps 500 million dollars and raise this amount of money. We can coordinate this support through a donor conference. The question posed to participants will be: do you want Tunisia to succeed? And if you do, what are you going to do about it? Tunisia needs this assistance, and it is doable.

One of Tunisia’s main attractions is the highly educated population. Marshall Plan funded projects, you had to have a plan. Let’s build infrastructure, hospitals, roads. Let’s really develop the economy. You’re giving people jobs, but you’re also laying the foundation for real economic growth as the political situation stabilizes in three or four years.

You have been working to create a cultural and political bridge between the United States and Tunisia. Don’t you think the same thing should be done with Europe? How could European-Tunisian relations be improved?

The Europeans have an even bigger stake in Tunisia’s success. When democracy spreads in the Arab world, this is to be a huge asset for Europe. Instead of a lot of problems with immigration and crime, because of economic troubles, now you have a partner on the other side of the Mediterranean, a partner for trade and development.

I think European leaders mean it when they say it is vital that Tunisia succeeds. But they must be willing to do what it takes. It’s not enough to say it. They are in a position where they are almost too comfortable with Tunisia. Tunisia is “fine.” We need to pressure them into doing the right thing because there is no room for error: it would be a disaster for the entire region if Tunisia’s democratic transition fails.

If Tunisia succeeds, it will become a very attractive model. Others will say look, Tunisia has done it, why can’t we? But if the Tunisians fail, then others will say forget about democracy; if it cannot work in Tunisia, it cannot work in Saudi Arabia.

Radwan Masmoudi was interviewed by Giancarlo Bosetti