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Democracy and Islam, democracy and the Arab world. In the years that followed America’s invasion of Iraq, in March 2003, this subject had filled newspapers and was at the centre of debates and conferences. Then, slowly the West turned to other issues, following the failure of the Iraqi adventure and faced with the fact that no, the bombs had not enlightened the region, contrary to what had been the hopes of neo-conservative theoreticians who inspired Bush’s “Freedom agenda.”

Nowadays, events have reopened the debate and, from New York to Brussels, there is one observation to be made. So, yes, it is possible, so there can be democracy in the Arab-Islamic world too. To tell the truth, Reset and Resetdoc never stopped addressing the subject (a few example just over this past year? Here, here, here, here and here). No later than just three months ago, Reset asked a number of famous Italian scholars to answer the question. “why are there no Arab democracies?” If one reads the answers today, they impress one, since they also appear to foresee many of the scenarios surprisingly developing today.

Diamond’s thesis

The idea came from an article by Larry Diamond, director of Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law, and founder of the Journal of Democracy. In the paper published in Italy by Reset, Diamond wrote that in 1995 there were 117 electoral democracies, but he bitterly also observed, “By then, a critical mass of democracies existed in every major world region save one—the Middle East. Moreover, every one of the world’s major cultural realms had become host to a significant democratic presence, albeit again with a single exception—the Arab world.” Diamond opened the debate, supporting the idea that the problem is not Islam, nor is it cultural or religious (Muslim countries such as Albania, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Senegal and Turkey are democracies). It is, in his opinion, the economic systems and in particular the so-called “oil curse”, which allow regimes in one way or another to make the economy work, without asking citizens to pay taxes (which is at the basis of a representative democracy), and, simultaneously fomenting corruption through bureaucracy.

In spite of everything, the author expressed his optimism (when others were not even addressing the issue). “Is the Arab world simply condemned to an indefinite future of authoritarian rule? I do not think so. Even the beginnings of a change in U.S. foreign policy during the years from 2003 to 2005 encouraged political opening and at least gave space for popular democratic mobilization in countries such as Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco, as well as the Palestinian Authority. Although most of these openings have partly or fully closed for the time being, at least Arab oppositions and civil societies had some taste of what democratic politics might look like. Opinion surveys suggest that they clearly want more, and new social-media tools such as Facebook, Twitter, the blogosphere, and the mobile-phone revolution are giving Arabs new opportunities to express themselves and to mobilize.”

This optimism was basically shared by the experts invited to answer by Reset, who, if anything, opposed Diamond’s words when he predicted that change may have come from Iraq (“although – he warned – Egypt also bears watching, as the sun slowly sets on the 81-year-old Hosni Mubarak’s three decades of personal rule. Whether or not his 46-year-old son Gamal succeeds him, the regime will experience new stresses and needs for adaptation when this modern-day pharaoh passes from the scene”) or that “The biggest game changer would be a prolonged, steep decline in world oil prices (say to half of current levels.)”

The replies provided by Allievi, Bonino, zu Fürstenberg, Campanini, Guolo and Amato

Stefano Allievi, a professor at Padua University and author of the recently published “La guerra delle Moschee” [The War of the Mosques] (Marsilio – Reset), agreed with Diamond in attributing little importance to the religious aspect (“It would in fact make no sense to ask oneself whether there are any Arab or Muslim democracies, just as it would make no sense to wonder if there are any Slav, central African not to mention Hindu or Buddhist democracies”) also emphasising how civil society is “fragile and basically at the mercy of the benevolence of power” and the economy is “strongly influenced from above, intrinsically parasitical and inevitably distorted.” He then almost “prophetically” singled out “cosmetic democracies such as Tunisia or Egypt” and invited everyone to continue the dialogue with religious parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and in Europe with minorities that emigrated there, always in contact with the elites in the Arab world.

Criticism of Diamond came from Emma Bonino, former European Commissioner and someone who knows the Arab world extremely well, who judged it wrong to rely on Iraq and a decline in the price of oil, saying instead, that “If there is indeed a game changer, and an irreversible one, that would be widespread internet access, especially now that it is available on mobile phones, a development that Diamond does not believe should be taken into account – she added – The fundamentally horizontal nature of the internet, not only as a means of communication, but especially as a place for social and political integration, has the potential to change power relations between individuals and the state.”

And while Nina zu Fürstenberg, president of Resetdoc, emphasized the progress made by Morocco (which does in fact today appear to be immune from the revolutionary wave) and added new subjects to Diamond’s theory, quoting a study by Michael L. Ross on the link between oil and women’s issues (“Not only does oil “encourage patriarchates” but it also thwarts the possibility of “fairer relations between the sexes, since it obstructs political commitment and democracy”). Massimo Campanini, a professor at the Oriental University in Naples, stated that he agreed with the Stanford scholar, but believed he had not sufficiently considered “the duality of a certain western attitude towards Arab and Muslim countries, in which objective support and justification is provided to authoritarian regimes, as is obvious in the case of Tunisia and Egypt.”

According to Renzo Guolo, a professor of sociology at Padua University and a leader writer for La Repubblica, Islam is perhaps a little underestimated in Diamond’s thesis, because one must “take into account the important role religion has played, and still plays, as a legitimizing factor for secular and non-secular governments, and as a source of law in a world that has not known or interiorized philosophical schools of thought and political theories placing democracy at the centre of their analysis.” “The spreading of a literalist interpretation of holy texts, the lack of hermeneutics capable of addressing sclerotic theological and juridical traditions, crystallised by the decision taken by a class of religious experts to close the “gateway to reflection” in the 10th Century, powerfully affects the possibility of political, juridical or religious innovation that could encourage the creation of democracy. Thus, if the Arab world cannot be studied exclusively through the filter of Islam and Arabness, neither can one study it without such filters.”

Former Italian Prime Minister and a member of Restedoc’s Board of Directors, Giuliano Amato replied both on Reset and in the newspaper Sole 24 Ore, observing that the curse of oil does not explain the lack of democracy in those countries, since it is also absent in Tunisia and Egypt, which have no oil. “The truth is that authoritarianism in Arab countries originates in economic and social backwardness that has made and continues to render the embedding of democracy difficult everywhere in the world, while it is now kept alive by the self-defence mechanisms it has equipped itself with.” Amato expressed himself in favour of a dialogue with moderate Muslims and placed his trust in new technologies and the free market’s virtues. “The most and the best we can do is encourage and keep alive cultural exchanges, discuss matters with trust with moderate Muslims and contribute to economic development, especially by encouraging the spreading of a free market.”

Translated by Francesca Simmons