Istanbul

Erdogan said that the work carried out still needs to be consolidated. And in order to do this he has used all possible strategies possible. An electoral campaign which the outgoing prime minister has invested a lot on, not only from an economical point of view. The premier has called up to his court the most important experts in images and communication. And, unlike in the past electoral consultation, he has wanted to do it alone. Starting from the candidatures. The list, infact, has been drawn up by Erdogan himself, without the help of Abdullah Gul and Bulent Arink, the foreign affairs minister and president of the Parliament respectively, ever faithful to the prime minister and together with him, founders of Akp. A decision, that of Erdogan, which has provoked quite a few arguments along the corridors of his formation, especially for the surprise of 14th June, when the list of who was to run for a seat in the Tbmm, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, was published. Over 40 female candidates, 7 in constituencies predicted to win, which for Turkish standards is equivalent to an absolute record. “Our best electoral campaign are the facts – he told journalists the next day – We had said that there would be more room for women and we have kept that promise”. The result has been over 3 points won in surveys and the hushing up of those who has tried to criticise it.

Not only that, but if Erdogan has added something to one part, he has taken away from the other. And to go, are excellent names, considered untouchable by the most conservative factions of the Party for justice and development. People connected to the ex Islamic party, Refah (wellbeing), declared as unconstitutional in 1997, exponents who have grown politically under the guidance of Necmettin Erbakan, historical leader of the Islamic right and spiritual father of Erdogan and Gul. A strong sign of unmarking towards the past. To demonstrate to everybody, even to his main detractors, that his party manages to be not only Islamic, but moderate too. Even if recent arguments on the veil, which have involved the wife and daughter of Abdullah Gul, seem to show the exact opposite. A fast race towards the reconfirmation of such shameless power, that the outgoing premier has not rejected to use for his personal gain, arguments which generally which are not really congenial. In the past month, in fact, a new wave of violence by separatist guerrilla fighters of the Pkk, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, has swept across the Country. In essence, the positions between the government and the army are diametrically opposed. The ultralaic military, very sceptical as regards the Erdogan government, has asked several times for an armed intervention over the Northern Iraki border, where the most dangerous cells of the Pkk are located. The executive has always chosen the route of caution and of mediation, also because of the oil deals which the Turkish energy minister was trying to close in the Kirkuk area.

So, in the past month the prime minister has opened up, several times, the hypothesis of an armed intervention, reaching two important results: gathering consensus, on the one hand, raising the “Kurdish problem”, which for a long time has been felt strongly by the population. And, on the other hand, giving a different image, more extended, of the relationship with the military, after 27th April when the top commander of the Turkish armed forces, General Yasar Buyukanit, had threatened to intervene directly in the life of the Country. It would seem to be a winning march. But some instruments are still out of tune. Just round the corner, there is the Constitutional Court, the same which in May, after Gul’s defeat as the president of the Republic, he had been called upon, by the opposition and by the President of the Republic, the ultralaic Ahmet Necdet Sezer, to deliberate on the constitutional reform approved by Erdogan and his government in just 10 days and on the deadline of the mandate. He has been accused of wanting to change the law mother of the Turkish state to weaken the powers of the Parliament and of the judiciary order. If the Constitutional Court rejects the appeal, then voting will take place in a relatively calm climate, certainly less tense than a month and a half ago, when the clash between laic and philo-Islamic motions had reached worrying levels.

But if the Constitutional Court decides to cancel the parliamentary voting, which on the outside seems to have taken place correctly, then it will be open warfare. And in order to win it, the first weapon is to win back a majority in the compact and plebiscite Tbmm. Recep Tayyip Erdogan knows this only too well and is preparing for a new battle, which could be even bloodier than the one at polling stations 22nd July of last year. Turkey needs a new president of the Republic. Erdogan wants, at all costs, to put in charge a man from the Akp. The highest position of the State would allow the moderate Islamic premier to control even the nomination of the juridical and military establishments, or rather the only two powers which the ex Islamic militant from Rize has not yet been able to tarnish.

Translation by Sonia Ter Hovanessian