But will Sarkozy win?

It is not certain. A few months ago we saw many youths queuing outside the electoral offices to sign up to their own districts. I have reason to believe that their vote will be divided, even if, for the moment, it remains unknown and is absent from every statistical survey. For one simple fact: they do not have a landline and it is difficult to reach them; to such an extent that we could see a similar situation as in the United States, when Kennedy beat Nixon against all expectations. Even in that instance surveyists had not realised that black people did not have a telephone…

Is it possible that none of the candidates has realised what their electoral weight is?

Initially no. But in the television debates in the last few weeks, things have changed. And even journalists have given much more space to this part of the election.

Is the fact that many children of immigrants are engaging in the electoral campaign proof of the success of the Republican egalitarian model?

In my opinion, yes. Despite the fact that France has the largest Muslim community in the Western world, up until now there have been no attacks. This is a sign that our egalitarian model has prevailed over the communitarist one, such as the Anglo-Saxon type. In our country, problems related to immigrants are seen, above all, as social problems. On the contrary, in Great Britain or in Holland, similar chunks of the population do not feel represented by the State, they are victims of a communitarianism which ghettoises them and lets them drift; to such an extent that the ruling class no longer know what to do.

What do you think of the clashes between youths and forces of law and order, which happened last week at the Gare du Nord in Paris?

I find they are completely indicative of the current situation: a young Congolese is approached by two controllers of Maghrib origin. He does not have a ticket. They speak to each other in dialect and a fight breaks out. From there most of the crowd present gets involved on the side of the boy. It is a story in which there are all the classic categories, all the clichés are lined up against the wall. The representatives of the State are of Arab origin. The crowd rebels against social injustice. It is a conflict within the Republic and not between the State and one of its communities.

But in the end, what portrait of France is emerging from this electoral campaign?

A contradictory portrait. Never before have we seen so many fifty-year olds running for the presidency. Up until now we had been used to candidates over the age of sixty. As everybody knows, Nicolas Sarkozy is the son of an immigrant, and the socialists, with Ségolène Royal, have chosen a woman. This news indicates that, regardless the many problems still unresolved, regardless the tensions, many things have changed; society has changed.

A positive finding, therefore.

Not really. There are many negative aspects. Let me give you an example: a lot is said about the candidates’ personalities and little about their programme. This is by no means a small problem.

How is the electoral campaign perceived in the Middle East, in Africa and in the Arab world?

All these news elements which we have spoken about are looked upon worryingly. First of all, because none of the candidates are known abroad. With the exception of Sarkozy who has travelled for bilateral agreements stipulated when he was minister. But, even in his case, he is only known as Interior minister, and nothing more. Furthermore, because none of these political figures has international stature. Lastly, because people worry about Sarkozy’s eventual victory and there are fears that France will move closer towards Israel and the United States.

Do you share this last worry?

No. It is true that in the early days Sarkozy stated he was rather Americanphile. But then he understood that had he renounced the Gaullist foreign policy he would not be elected. And therefore he changed his tune.

One thing to consider, however, is the positions chosen in the electoral campaign. Many different ways of behaving could be adopted after the popular investment.

This is true. But other than the traditional pride of the French people on the foreign policy in recent decades, economic and strategic interests are of prime importance. In Africa and in the Middle East there are businesses working there, such as Total Clearstream. Renouncing friendships with those governments to side behind the United States would be complete suicide. This is the reason why I do not really believe that the next president will have much room for manoeuvre.

Getting back to the subject of France, what do you think of Ségolène Royal’s programme, and what are her chances of being elected?

It is difficult to say. Other than uncertainty on its content, the main obstacle is that she is not supported by the Socialist Party. The fact that the themes and the strategies of her campaign are decided exclusively by her general headquarters is proof that Royal finds it difficult to reinforce her camp. This is something which makes her remarkably weak.

Translation by Sonia Ter Hovanessian