Mr. Oetker, both personally and as an entrepreneur, what was your reaction to events in Egypt?
The first two days we closed down the factory, we had to protect those who work for us. We did stop a looting attempt. Now we have gone back to work, especially because we are in the middle of the strawberry picking season. We have now seen a solution to the Tunisian crisis but it is not over yet, and sooner or later there will be a change in leadership in neighbouring countries too. I am thinking of Libya and Yemen where there have already been riots.
You have had both the market and social trends analysed in depth. Could you tell us whether Egypt has a middle class capable of creating a really democratic future?
No, unfortunately for the moment there is no real middle class, neither from a perspective of wealth or from a demographic one. As in other Arab countries, about 30 percent of the population consists of young people aged between 15 and 29. In the past there were on average six to seven children for every woman. Nowadays this figure has fallen to three, which is still double the figure in Europe. There is an entire category of young people searching for their own role, but there are no jobs and therefore they are fighting to survive. So we are still very far from having a middle class. In Spain too, unemployment is high but young people there receive support from their families. With two children this is possible but not with five or more. This would be a problem for any government. Mubarak obviously did try and stabilize this situation. The problem at the heart of this revolution is not a new one. Young people with no future and no perspective, young people who have nothing to lose have always fuelled revolts.
So your contribution in bringing greater economic growth and education is the key to a better future. How long have you been working in Egypt?
In the last ten years we have created a good market in Egypt, together with our management at the Hero Group and two wonderful local minority partners, of which one was a member of the government until recently and the other is a liberal-conservative member of the opposition. Our vision was to concentrate competence in the transformation of fruit in Egypt and from here supply the market in the entire region which includes 22 Islamic countries. The Hero group boasts a long tradition in the production of jam, honey and fruit juices. Obviously we studied the market and the people carefully to assess whether or not there was demand for our products in the emerging middle classes. We did, of course, have to produce in more economical manner to adapt to the buying power of a middle class that, as said before, is small here. But we are, however, creating a market. After all, there are 80 million Egyptians. This process involving the creation of a market, certainly means creating job opportunities, allowing those who work for us to develop a vision for their own future
And what about the German University, the GUC, which you actively helped organize?
The university was started ten years ago by an Egyptian who had studied in Germany, Mr. Mansour, and thanks to Egyptian and German financing. I personally worked very hard on this project and it was worth it. Now there are 7,000 students studying there and numbers are rising. Academic levels are very high and we have a campus linked to the world of industry, with entrepreneurs who come not only to present their products and machinery but also to train students. The language spoken is English but classes are also held in German. It is a centre that encourages the birth of a middle class. This exchange model is a successful one, profiting Egypt as well as us. Once the American University of Cairo was a very special place, a sort of elite centre. Nowadays the situation has changed in favour of the German University.
Does America still exercise great influence over Egypt?
American influence is waning but the 10 or 20 years ago it was far stronger. This is on one hand caused by the USA and its current financial weakness, and on the other its loss of credibility and thus of its foundations, caused, for example, by the war in Iraq. European influence instead is growing slowly but constantly. If our models for universities and economic growth could be multiplied thanks to industries such as mine and those of others, that would be an excellent outcome. One perceives here the lack of a clear vision, as instead one sees in Turkey, and there is the lack of a development programme with a specific timeframe.
What direction do you think events will take? Will Mubarak resign?
Mubarak said, “I want to die in Egypt.” Exile is dishonourable for a nationalist such as he is. I believe the army is trying to find a dignified way out for Mubarak.
What role is the army playing today? Is its power only military or also economical?
For 60 years real power has belonged to the army. Mubarak, Sadat and Nasser all came to power thanks to the army. The army also controls large sectors of the economy as well as being self-sustaining. The army protects energy supplies and agriculture with its significant subsidies. The army has also maintained an intelligent attitude, avoiding any intervention except in cases of extreme need. The situation is certainly not very clear and few really understand the role played by the army in all this. I imagine the army would approve of a national unity government including all the country’s various political forces.
Should there be a real democratisation process, who could lead it?
I really have no idea who the leader should be. A slow democratic process will however develop and I would imagine that the solution would be a transition government. Mubarak’s former rivals include a number of excellent politicians, such as, for example, Amr Mussa. In a certain sense El Baradei went into exile as the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency as Mussa did becoming the Secretary General of the Arab League. Neither is very well-known by the people. The current Vice President Omar Suleiman, the former head of the secret service, is also a very powerful man. He is clearly linked to Mubarak, and for this reason he may encounter resistance. Personally I think the country is ready for a democratization process.
The Turkish democratic model is today taken as an example to be followed. Would that be implementable for Egypt?
Turkey’s candidature to enter the E.U. acted as a stimulus for development in the country. This mobilized the people and the economy, imposing economic, political and above all similar juridical standards. Human rights of course remain a complicated issue in Turkey and the problem of freedom of worship for minorities such as Christians for example, is still not resolved. In spite of this, the country is far more developed. Egypt is about 15 to 20 years behind compared to Turkey as far as development is concerned. These are totally different stages of development.
Does the new media play an important role?
Yes of course, the media accelerated this process – smartphones, Facebook, Twitter. However, the manner in which they are used and what one can achieve with them to bring added value to the country depends also on a different educational system and more complete education in schools. The people must learn to think and act more independently. The level of education for the masses is very low and I do not know how such a process could be speeded up from the outside. What is needed above all is leadership with a vision, leaders who take into account the economic situation and promote cooperation. What is also needed is the leaders’ strong identification with the people.
What can be done to support development and the democratic process?
In recent years the European Union has looked after itself and its economic crisis. It must return to address the problem of how to provide stimulus to countries such as Egypt. The Mubarak era is drawing to an end, but he will be replaced by new leadership and it is not clear yet whether there will be a new, dominant “pharaoh.” This would not be right. A more democratically legitimised leadership is needed. This process must be supported by the international community and therefore by the European Union, the USA and the United Nations. The Arab League is too weak to implement any vision, it is, for example, still very far from the idea of a common market and everything is still very national. Even the Mediterranean Union has not provided any solutions.
Dr. Arend Oetker is Chairman and President of Hero AG and Schwartauer GmbH. He serves as a member of Executive Committees or as the president of several German foundations, such as the Donors’ Association for the Promotion of Science and Humanities in Germany, the DFG- German Research Foundation, Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wirtschaft; Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie; the DGAP- German Council on Foreign Relations, the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations, the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science, and the Fritz Thyssen Foundation. Dr. Oetker studied Business Administration Management and Political Science at the Universities of Hamburg, Berlin and Cologne, obtaining a doctorate in Political Science from the University of Cologne. He studied Business Management and Political Science at the Freie Universität Berlin.
Translated by Francesca Simmons