Minxin Pei studied at Shanghai International Studies University and at Harvard University. He is the author of ‘China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy’ (Harvard University Press, 2006). His research has been published in Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, Modern China, China Quarterly, and Journal of Democracy. His op-eds have appeared in the Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, and other major newspapers.

Does a “Sinic Civilization” exist, including China, North Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Taiwan and the Chinese diaspora?

I think this concept is accurate in describing only the cultural heritage of these societies. Clearly Confucian influence is strong in all of them. But they are very different, and civilization includes not only culture, but also economics and politics. So I would hesitate to lump them all together.

How did the Chinese civilization change in recent decades?

The Chinese civilization has become more outward-looking, materialistic, and individualistic. This is the result of China’s integration into the global system and the influence of market economics, which emphasizes individualism, materialism, and cosmopolitanism.

Some fear that China will pose the most powerful long-term threat to the West. Do you agree with them?

No, I disagree. China’s success will be a great asset to the West. It can play a more active and positive role in global affairs. But if China fails to develop its economy and maintain stability at home, that would be a real threat to the world.

Samuel Huntington saw Islamic civilization as a potential ally to China. He argued that a “Sino-Islamic connection” was emerging, in which China could cooperate more closely with Iran and Pakistan and other Muslim states. Is this “connection” a reality?

I think this prediction has not been borne out by reality. China has few common interests with the Islamic world, except for oil (but which country does not?). China does most of its trade with the West and looks to the West as its model. China also has its own problems with the Islamic world. A province in China has an Islamic separatist movement. So the situation is more complex.

But at the United Nations, China often defends the Muslim states.

That’s not true. China sometimes defends Islamic states, sometimes it does not. China is very realistic and makes its foreign policy decisions based on its national interests, not cultural values.

Should we fear that a successful Chinese model (wealth without democracy) could become the world model?

First of all, economic success without democracy is very rare, so I do not believe that China has demonstrated its success. Based on world history, economic development without democracy and the rule of law will ultimately fizzle. So we have no need to fear the Chinese model.

The New York Times wrote that Democrats will have a different attitude towards China. What do you think?

Yes. Democrats do not believe China is a military threat, but they believe China has a very negative impact on the U.S. labor market and they don’t like the Beijing government because of its poor human rights record.