The Israeli attack on the Turkish flotilla of pacifists sailing to Gaza, in which 9 civilians were killed and at least another 25 were wounded, has strained relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv, already severely tested by Israel’s military operation Cast Lead Fuso in the Gaza Strip (December 27th 2008-January 18th 2009). Did you expect such an escalation? And, above all, is the hypothesis of a Turkish plot envisaged by some analysts, credible?
In the days before the flotilla’s arrival off Gaza, the international press was already reporting on the pacifist expedition. There was tension, but no one envisaged such as disproportionate use of force by the Israelis. Frankly, I do not know how sound this thesis of a Turkish plot is, I cannot understand what the motivations and objectives might be. It is true that in recent years Turkey has made peace with Iran and Syria, that they have become important economic partners. But Turkey’s strategic policy remains that of guaranteeing regional stability. Turkey does not want problems with any of its neighbours and cultivates dialogue.
Is this so as to be perfectly in order for future European Union membership?
Without going so far and bringing Europe into the equation, it is sufficient to consider the regional picture. Turkey has military and economic agreements with Israel, and in spite of initial statements, it does not intend to break them. The Turkish Minister of Defence has guaranteed that relations with Tel Aviv are not up for discussion. One must not forget the role played by Ankara as a mediator between Tel Aviv and Damascus. Turkey has nothing to gain from a clash with Israel, in spite of having recently become a champion of the Palestinian cause and siding with Gaza.
So on one hand Ankara is ready to take the lead in negotiations between Israel on one hand and Palestinian, Syrian interlocutors and the entire region on the other. But Tel Aviv alone cannot dictate the rules.
Yes. Turkey is seriously involved in negotiations between Israel and Syria, but then a year and a half ago, operation Cast Lead thwarted the efforts made. Later, Israel no longer considered the Turks as reliable due to their defending Gaza. Now, it is my opinion that recent events have caused another interruption in the peace process. This does not benefit anyone, not even Israel.
So you do not expect any significant changes in relations between Israel and Turkey, but rather Tel Aviv becoming increasingly isolated, a new delay for the peace process.
Perhaps one can no longer speak of a strategic friendship between the two countries, but all agreements remain valid. In the meantime however, Israel really does risk remaining isolated in the Middle East, because international reaction has been unanimous, regardless of the lack of an agreement on a shared resolution. Everything now depends on the pressure the United States will apply on Tel Aviv. Only America, and certainly not the European Union which is incapable of non speaking as one and being credible, can unblock the Gaza Strip embargo and negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, which will, however, have to start from zero. The meeting that did not take place between American President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, cancelled by the American President, is a powerful signal.
Will the Turkish government run the risk of displeasing national public opinion if it does not move against Israel after the heated statements made immediately after the Israeli attack?
Those we saw protesting in the streets of the Turkish capital do not represent the entire population, although it is certainly a significant new element. One will have to see how relations between Turkey and Israel evolve after these recent events. The Israeli attack against the pacifist certainly did not help already tense bilateral relations and will isolate Tel Aviv even more in the region. For Palestinians in Gaza much depends on the actions undertaken by American diplomacy.
Translated by Francesca Simmons