The pro-Western “March 14” Alliance defeated the Syrian-backed Hezbollah Party. Saad Hariri has been appointed Prime Minister. What is the new Lebanese political scenario?
One cannot really identify a specific winner or a loser in the recent Lebanese parliamentary elections. Of course in terms of seats, the “March 14” Alliance won. But politically, the Hezbollah party showed that it still has a broad consensus in the Shiite areas in the country. Beyond that it was to be expected that Saad Hariri would be designated Prime Minister; he is a young and loyal politician and also a moderate leader. Hariri Junior will battle for the truth regarding the national case concerning the assassination of his father Rafiq. So I think he is an appropriate leader for the Lebanese people. Of course he still has to mature, but he is smart enough. I believe he is on the right path. So Hariri is the representative of the new Lebanese national Government and all Lebanese political groups, Shiite, Sunni and Christian, will respect the legitimate national Government. However, foreign countries such as US, Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and France will continue to keep a grip on the Lebanon.
Saad Hariri has already spoken to the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
It is expected that all Lebanese political parts will cooperate to ensure the cohesion and stability of this Government. But there are different views within the Cabinet. Saad Hariri acknowledges that the opposition party Hezbollah has a large consensus among the people; the Shiite party is acknowledged as the national resistance movement. Anyway Hezbollah will not have power to veto decisions in its role of opposition within the Cabinet.
Hezbollah has declared they will not lay down their arm. What reaction might the “March 14” Alliance have?
This issue is a priority within the national political debate. It could mark the first step towards national security. There is no agreement nor understanding on that issue at the moment. It is expected it will be solved quickly. Beyond that it is an issue requiring a deeper analysis concerning the Hezbollah militias and foreign countries such as Iran as well as their connections with the thousands of Lebanese living outside the country.
Saad Hariri has been designated as the Prime Minister as he is Sunni leader. Will the new Cabinet endorse the change of the actual sectarian electoral law?
Electoral law too is an important issue in the Lebanese State. Of course it is necessary to address the electoral law. All political parts underline the necessity for a reform of the electoral system, overcoming current sectarian law. It will not be that easy in the Lebanon.
How will Syria react to the Western-backed coalition’s victory in the Lebanon?
Since the assassination of the former premier Rafiq Hariri in the 2005, the balance between Lebanon and Syria has changed. Lebanon blamed Damascus for the assassination, and Syria denied any involvement, although it has withdrawn its troops. After that Saad Hariri stopped his hostile rhetoric and has vowed to cooperate with the pro-Syrian Hezbollah party. But the new relationship will not stop the judicial inquiry on the Rafiq murder.