Whatever people may say, he did try to transform a great problem into an opportunity for Turkey. The worst seems to be over in this new crisis between Israel and Hamas, and moderate Islamic Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is drawing his own conclusions regarding a situation in which Turkey’s position has been, to say the least, a difficult one. With the problems he was facing and the difficult economic situation, all Erdogan needed was the breakdown of the truce between Israel and Hamas. Since Syria decided to break off negotiations with Jerusalem on the Golan Heights almost two weeks ago, the Premier has been committed to one issue only; re-launching Turkey’s role as the great mediator. A role influenced by a decade-long friendship with Israel, and on the other hand by the Turkish people, who for days have been protesting in support of their “Palestinian brothers”, In two months the country will hold local elections and the AKP, the Party for Justice and Development (a moderate Islamic party with a majority in parliament), seems to be losing support.

The conflict in the Gaza Strip came as an unpleasant and badly timed surprise. For months Turkey has been attempting to gain credit as a great mediator in the Middle Eastern and Caucasus area, and on progress was being made on both these fronts, with talks between Syria and Israel for returning the Golan Heights to Damascus, and renewed dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh region. According to European diplomatic sources, Olmert had reassured Erdogan, during his last visit to Ankara on December 22nd, of Israel’s intentions on the Gaza Strip. The Premier however quickly denied this and declared that the two leaders had only discussed negotiations with Damascus. Three days later there was the first reaction from Jerusalem. Erdogan could only use powerful words, describing the bombardments as a “crime against humanity” and a “lack of respect for Ankara’s peace-making efforts.” Ehud Olmert’s government did its best to mend relations.

The daily paper Hürriyet reported a statement by the Minister for Social Affairs, Isaac Hertzog, according to whom Israel understood Turkey’s reaction to Jerusalem’s military operations in the Gaza Strip. Hertzog added that the Jewish State “had no intention to embarrass the Prime Minister and the Turkish people,” however he also compared attacks by Hamas to those of the PKK, a very sensitive issue in Turkey. Although the Prime Minister was visibly annoyed by the situation, Ankara did not lose the diplomatic dynamism that has characterised his government’s policies in recent months, and on the contrary seemed even more committed. Last week Foreign Minister Ali Babacan flew to Egypt and asked his colleague Ahmed Aboul Gheit for a ceasefire, cleverly reminding him that it was Hamas that violated the ceasefire.

At the same time, Erdogan left on a three-day tour of the region, saying that Turkey will oppose any escalation of violence. He travelled to Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, so as not to lose cohesion, that is now seriously at risk, and to Syria to tell Damascus to remain calm. Even if Israel does not for the moment seem to acknowledge the Turkish diplomatic effort with all the value that the Prime Minister and his team believe they deserve, one must emphasise that the match has been a tough one and lacking unity on various fronts. The moderate Islamic Prime Minister has, in fact, had to take into account his country’s friendship with Israel, although there have been a few tense moments in the past. It is a close friendship that has lasted for decades and been strengthened by the fight against terrorism, joint military exercises, and a series of pipeline projects for gas, water and oil running from the Black Sea to the Red Sea. Erdogan could never have afforded to jeopardise a relationship with such a key ally, also due to negative consequences within his own country.

In fact Turkish voters marched against the Olmert government, the military are among the most energetic supporters of good relations with Jerusalem. All these are reasons for which Ankara must remain calm and try to maintain this alliance. Erdogan must take into account the mood of the Turkish people just two months before local elections and with his party losing support. There have been some positive results. On January 14th Istanbul will host an extraordinary assembly of the Organisation for the Islamic Conference. Turkish soldiers could be asked to guard the Gaza Strip and thus play an important role in ensuring the ceasefire is respected. Erdogan has also made a number of phone calls (to Silvio Berlusconi, Gordon Brown and Vladimir Putin among others). Such dynamism is worthy of one wishing to walk the international stage and play an increasingly important role with ever increasing influence that great international diplomacy still does not fully acknowledge, perhaps due to a form of snobbery.

Translated by Francesca Simmons